HermesPortfolio

2026-04-29 Echo Analysis Watchlist Technical Levels

Echo Analysis Watchlist Technical Levels

Saved: 2026-04-29 11:07 Source: Notes from @EchoAnalysis (Discord trading analysis)


🚀 Bullish / Accumulation Zones

CELH — Celsius Holdings

  • Long-term thesis: Very positive — "generational buy" potential
  • Current behavior: Waiting patiently for a deeper pullback; "close to buying"
  • Key buy zone: 0.786 Fibonacci support around $30
  • Longer-term target: Wave 3/5 target of +389%
  • Portfolio status: On wishlist (1% position desired)

OUST — Ouster

  • Setup: Bullish — broke above 200 DMA, pulled back to retest and bounced
  • Buy signal: Any further retest of 200 DMA is a buy-on-dip
  • Target: Wave 3 target +209%
  • Note: Frequently highlighted as primed for breakout
  • Portfolio status: On wishlist (1% position desired)

RDW — Redwire

  • Long-term: Very bullish — massive Wave 5 target of +391%
  • Short-term caution: Price broke below 50 DMA; deeper pullback expected
  • Probable buy zones: 200 WMA (~$6.78) or 0.786 Fib (~$6.50)
  • Current phase: Interpreted as Wave B/C chop before Wave 3 impulse
  • Portfolio status: On wishlist (1% position desired), sizing placeholder

SIDU — Sidus Space

  • Current: Pulled back significantly, testing Fib levels; waiting for 50 DMA tap as buy zone
  • Prior success: Previously nailed a +79% move on this ticker
  • Target: Wave 3/5 targets around +202–240%
  • Status: Frequently on watchlist, but not yet at entry
  • Portfolio status: Small current position (3 shares) — potential add-on zone pending

SMR — NuScale Power

  • Long-term: Extremely bullish ("generational buy" potential), Wave 3 targets +642% to 10x+
  • Near-term: Weak; waiting for support at 0.887 Fib in the $7s
  • Expectation: Price will test that support before stepping in
  • Chart notes: Playing out as expected with lower lows; still accumulating
  • Portfolio status: On wishlist (1% position desired), waiting for $7s zone

📉 Bearish / Wait-for-Flush Zones

ELF — e.l.f. Beauty

  • Near-term structure: Bearish — older but consistent view
  • Expectation: Further downside in Wave C to a lower low
  • Strong buy zone: 0.887 Fib around $31 (waiting for final flush)
  • Prior call: ~45% drop from prior levels; still awaiting that capitulation event
  • Portfolio status: On wishlist but currently sidelined until flush

📊 Analysis Framework Notes

  • Elliott Wave: All tickers labeled with current/expected wave count; most awaiting Wave 3 impulse moves after corrections complete
  • Fibonacci levels: Key support/resistance anchored to 0.786 (aggressive buy) and 0.887 (deep value) retracements of prior moves
  • Moving averages referenced:
    • 50 DMA — short-term trend filter
    • 200 DMA — major trend dynamic support
    • 200 WMA — long-term foundation level
    • Time horizons:
    • Near-term: weeks to months (Wave B/C corrections, entry waiting)
    • Long-term: multi-year holds targeting Wave 3/5 impulse moves
    • Risk management: Entries specified as zones (not single prices) → suggests scaling in around those levels rather than market orders

🔗 Related Portfolio Context

These tickers map to your current positions and wishlist:
TickerCurrent PositionWishlist TargetEntry ZoneTechnical Stance
CELHNo1%~$30Bullish — close to buy
ELFNo~$31 flushBearish — waiting
OUSTNo1%200 DMABullish setup
RDWNo1%$6.50–6.78Bullish — pullback entry
SIDU3 shares50 DMA tapPatient add-on
SMRNo1%$7s (0.887 Fib)Bullish — waiting for test

✅ Action Checklist

  • [ ] Set price alerts for entry zones
  • [ ] Monitor CELH pullback to $30 0.786 Fib zone
  • [ ] Ignore ELF until $31 flush zone and structure turns bullish
  • [ ] Watch OUST for 200 DMA retest (~$70–72) as entry
  • [ ] RDW: watch for breakdown to $6.50–6.78 zone
  • [ ] SIDU: wait for 50 DMA tap before adding to existing small position
  • [ ] SMR: wait for 0.887 Fib test in $7s before initiating

*Note: Analysis calibrated as of 2026-04-29. Re-evaluate zones monthly or after major price action.*